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Author Topic: US Dow Jones Stock Market  (Read 1508 times)

Offline astr0144

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US Dow Jones Stock Market
« on: July 14, 2016, 11:14:37 AM »
In ref to the US Stock Market and the Dow Jones, I have wrote on a  3 or 4 threads that I wrote that referred to what I thought may happen since 2015..

Although not always spot on and I had indicated some other various dates.. some highs and lows came in relatively close...

Back In June 2015...I did indicate that we may see a large decline maybe into August 30th...

A Major low came in a week early on Aug 24th and did in the end become the Major Low for that year and has been since..

In another thread later I then suggested that we may see another Low in early 2016..

and we did get another slight higher low than that of Aug 2015...this came in on Jan 20th..but that has proven to be the main low of 2016 so far.. we had another low on Feb 11th that on one post on another thread...I had referred to prior...

When the Markets had been at higher levels on the Dow... back in June 2015... The Dow had made a high at that time of 18364...

I had said that I thought we may see the Dow go higher at some point to the 18550 to 18880 level..

Well after I made another recent post ..I did say the we may see another sell off to August... back somewhere in either  April / May / June 2016.. but I also referred to what may happen with the EU referendum around June 24th...

Well as it turned out the Dow made another low after an initial sell off on June 23rd/ Friday 24th and found a low the following Monday 27th June.. and it has since severely rerallied..

The Dow however has now hit 18560 today..right on my next resistance level that I indicated...see below for my past post that referred to that level..

My Next main cycles range from JULY 15th, 25th and early August..6th/8th.

Another expert that I follow is suggesting between Aug 26th to 30th then Sept 26th and Oct 20th as being major sell off dates..

at what levels these may be and which may be at the higher point he does not say..

This rally since the Low in Jan 2016 has followed a similar long term past cycle period almost exact that led to a top forming between July and early August..

I believe this cycle could become valid and repeat..

It went  on to sell off severe from tops made in July / August into December..

The Long term Chart pattern according to Technical Analysis is showing what some claim as being a very bearsish pattern..that suggest we will see a low in about 2 to 3 years lower than that of 2009..

MY CONCERNS are that the market may have hit a strong resistance area now... and what may happen come the US Election ! in November..

Initially earlier..I would have thought that the market may had fell earlier into August and rallied back up into the US election..

If the Market does decline..severe in the next 2 months...I wonder if something may had happened to spook things prior to the US Election..

Wrote in Sept 2015 that referred to a later low in early 2016....we also did see a pivot high in late December 2015 prior to the big decline into Jan 2016
http://www.thelivingmoon.com/forum2/index.php?topic=8671.msg118734#msg118734
Quote
As the Cycle date I had in mind did not work exact for the August low dates on the Dow.. the next Main one I have in Mind for now comes in December/ early 2016.

http://www.thelivingmoon.com/forum2/index.php?topic=9330.msg123776#msg123776



This was wrote in June 2015...prior to the Aug 6th that was at a higher level prior to the crash..and the Aug Low that later came in..

http://www.thelivingmoon.com/forum2/index.php?topic=8390.0

Quote
Trying to determine the turn dates is hard.. but its even harder to say if the dates will be highs or lows... although for some time periods.. I can often pick them out or estimate them reasonably well.)

 or if not. and the market holds up..maybe after the US July 4th Holiday.

14th and 27/28th July may see high or low pivots..

and  a decline to either August 6th (expected if Market still declines after July 9th) or August 30th.

I think we should see a High this year around
Sept 3rd to 9th. or around Sept 21st..or 30th.

This was roughly the same dates that occurred at the top of the 1929 stock Market Crash.

Oct 4th to 10th were other high pivot days before the start of the steeper large decline started.

I am expecting the Dow to hit a high somewhere inbetween 18400/18550  to 18880.

The Dows present all time high is about 18364 made on May 19th 2015


Quote
http://www.thelivingmoon.com/forum2/index.php?topic=8390.0 
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 12:00:20 PM by astr0144 »

Offline astr0144

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 12:46:23 PM »
This shows what the Dow Jones has done in the last 3 and  12 months...best clcik on links to see charts as I cannot get the images to fit in the screen to the right size..

The Dow made a low of about 17060 on June 23rd  after the EU Referendum that had come in late on July 23rd at a high about 18125.... That initially had declined about 860 pts overnight in 5 hrs...then by Monday 27th...it was 960 points..

Since the Low made on June 27th, it rallied about 1500 points..




http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/charts?symb=DJIA&countrycode=US&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F14%2F2016&freq=1&compidx=none&compind=none&comptemptext=Enter+Symbol%28s%29&comp=none&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&style=1013



http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/charts

Since year 2000 many financial experts had suggested that we were likely to see a Major Stock Market crash.  but after the decline we had in 2000.. the Dow Jones bottomed in Oct 2002 and rerallied into a high in Oct 2007...   They were predicting that the market would decline again and it did again for about 18 months / 2 years in to Mar 2009..

As the market had fell more than 50% of its all time high that had taken over 70 yrs since the low made in 1932 in the great depression... it fell nearly 62% in about 18 months...

( so from July 1932 low... it took 68 yrs to hit the 2000 high,  ...7 years later..... it was 75 yrs to hit the 2007 high.....9 years later again...2016 high !!!

thats 84 years since the 1932 low....what maybe an average lifetime today..

some say that they crash the markets after an average lifetime...

it makes me wonder....The 1932 depression destroyed numerous families...mass populations..)

Very few traders thought it would recover from that including me..

When it made new highs breaking the 2007 high... I had been rather very uncertain what to expect next and did not think we would see any chance of a decline again...

but so many analysts just were saying the bubble is defining all logic... It was suggested that it was being held up by Quantitative easing by the Government who pumped trillions of $s into it to rally the markets..

and we seen a large rally from March 2009 low of about 6400 on the Dow Jones to the recent new all time high made today at 18560 so far in July 2016 in about 7 years..

Financial experts look at Chart patterns in the markets as they can often give some idea what maybe going on.. and often when they form .. they do as past similar patterns have done in the past..

This is the Next main chart pattern that has since formed..

This is what is known as a Broadening top Formation.

It is relatively rare this forms, but when it does and if it repeats  similar to past patterns.. it can see a huge decline...

One main expert Harry Dent refers to this...

although he has done for a while now..

and the market MAY have even exceeded what one would expect in terms of its last leg maybe going higher than expected..

But I do have some long term cycles that are due to come in that I think could reverse the markets between now and end of the year... with Mid July to  August being the next main months that concerns me..



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47597.html

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47597.html





http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_bz2Veynkoic/THd8WVP1t9I/AAAAAAAAAkg/cCBsG6FsFTs/s1600/Broadening+Formation+3.jpg

This shows the pattern on the Dow Jones since year 2000... you can see how in 2007 we had a higher high made above the 2000 high, but also we had a lower low made in 2009 lower than that in year 2002..

The 3rd main new high is the final high in this pattern.. and we are at that now !!!..IF ITS GOING TO WORK...that is !!!





http://www.fedprimerate.com/dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-history.gif
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 02:46:27 PM by astr0144 »

Offline astr0144

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2016, 12:19:38 AM »
So far the Dow has topped in August and reacted to (or close to )some of  the dates that I indicated..along with some other analysts Dates that I also had some close by dates for end of August & early Sept that I expected after the Sept US Holiday.

and has started a large decline Thursday / Friday.

With Hilary Clinton showing Health problems...

I think someone posted an article that if it seemed she may not win the Election that the Markets may decline into the Election,...

There had been more warnings going around to withdraw cash from Banks and stock up on food and water / fuel...etc..

The early signs of the start of what seems like a possible large decline...that I do think will at least break brexit lows around the 17060 level...and I think may even break below Early Jan / Feb Lows around the 15500 level by December..

Quote
My Next main cycles range from JULY 15th, 25th and early August..6th/8th.

Another expert that I follow is suggesting between Aug 26th to 30th then Sept 26th and Oct 20th as being major sell off dates..

Offline astr0144

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2016, 07:36:25 PM »
As the eastern US Election Poll closed, the Dow Jones has just made a huge 550 /  600 point sell off in about 90 minutes  to 2 hrs after it had rallied similarly since the lows made on Friday

It had found a low of about 17880 on Friday and rallied to a new  high of 18453 since Sept 22nd 2016... about 90 mins ago on Nov 8th in the USA about 20.00 hrs  (1am UK time)where it hit 18453...

then its just sold off in 90 minutes to go below last Fridays low..
to new lows since the 8th  July 2016..

We may well see the sell of that I was expecting after the market had gone sideways/ range bound  for weeks ...

I had thought that my analysis was not seeming to work out on the cycles that I used..but it maybe that the market will catch up on the expected decline if it does not reverse over the next day.

What ever info has come out I have to envision that they now know whos going to win..


As I add in this amendment additional comment, I can See that Donald Trump leads the Poll 168 v 131 for Hillary Clinton at a time
of about  22.47 hrs New York time or 4.47 am UK time ,

So I wonder if this suggest that if D.T should win that we will likely see the Stock market sell off as was discussed in a thread a few weeks ago I think by Eigthman.... ie what the stock market may do in ref to the which ever candidate is likely to win.

I would be amazed if the Stock Market manages to hold up after seeing that.

But the market may reverse back up 3 hrs later after the Eastern Polls closed when the Western State polls have closed..The Market may rerally a bit at 23.00 hrs EST ..

The prices I gave above are based on another Dow Cash Market chart that varies in price to the December futures chart prices seen in the charts on the link below.

December Dow Jones  Futures chart is about 50 to 100 points lower than the Dow Jones Cash Market chart that I have access to..

This is a 15 min delayed chart on the December Months  Dow Futures Contract that trades 24 hrs... you can change the settings to 1 day or 1 hr etc..

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=YM&title=DEC_2016_E-mini_Dow_%2528%25245%2529_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Z6&year=2016&exchangeCode=XCBT


http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=YM&title=DEC_2016_E-mini_Dow_%2528%25245%2529_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=Z6&year=2016&exchangeCode=XCBT
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 09:34:06 PM by astr0144 »

Offline Pimander

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2016, 05:06:48 AM »
As the eastern US Election Poll closed, the Dow Jones has just made a huge 550 /  600 point sell off in about 90 minutes  to 2 hrs after it had rallied similarly since the lows made on Friday
The markets are worried about Trump's anti-free trade plans.  Don't forget a lot of the stocks are valued based on globalisation.

If we want to end exploitation of workers where we are all reduced to the wages of China then we have to go through this.  Basically, with free global trade production can be switched to the lowest paid meaning workers in the West have to work for less and less and are losing jobs.  This is just the beginning of the meltdown of Global Capitalism if Trump is true to his word.

Nobody said it would be painless.  Get ready for either a rough ride or a lot of broken promises.

Offline Payton

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2016, 09:06:52 AM »
Id say its been a rough ride already, hence Trump.

But some things may indeed get worse before they get better, as long as theres light at the end of the tunnel it will be fine


Offline The Seeker

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2016, 09:41:48 AM »
The ride started getting bumpy in 1992; the last eight years the snowball has been rolling down hill headed straight to hell...

It's not going to be smooth or without struggle to try and get America back on the right track, as they say no pain no gain.

President elect Trump has his work cut out for him.

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Offline Phedre

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2016, 10:04:29 AM »


I agree with you all. You simply can not suck money out of nations and rearrange poverty stricken populations and not have some sort of economic blow-back on us all. Eventually the "Reset" button will push it's self.

I over simplify, but the point is the same.  :-\

Offline robomont

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2016, 02:54:15 PM »
lol.reset button resetting itself.love it.

its called free market capitalism .we use to worship back in ancient times.now that globalism has kicked in.that god is dead.
so now we want to become isolationist all of a sudden.funny how that works?
little late really.unless they dump the motherload of new tech into the usa.we are on a slow ride to hell and off a cliff and it doesnt matter whos behind the wheel.
if you are looking for an out or relief,we are more likely to find it working here on pegasus than we are waiting on the great god trump to save us.
if i seem harsh,i wish to point out,harsh times require harsh methods.that fire in your gut needs to be ignited and fueled,its time to not get mad,but get angry and make it happen now.the days of stringing the usa along are over.trump and congress have 30 days in washington and then heads start rolling.no excuses.voter recalls for nov 2 next year.
in my humble opinion.
ive never been much for rules.
being me has its priviledges.

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Offline Pimander

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2016, 03:03:44 PM »
its called free market capitalism .we use to worship back in ancient times.now that globalism has kicked in.that god is dead.
but what that really meant in reality was the freedom of massive business cartels and banks to exploit the masses/workers.

There are no easy answers.

Offline robomont

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2016, 03:18:42 PM »
sure there is,a carbon nanotube and fiber economy,also 3d printers.robotics.weve debated this stuff in the past on here.but none of it counts if we have a unstable economy and dollar.the fed must finally stop playing with money supply.i stated this last month,a little inflation is a good thing.its the only way out and the clocks ticking.even fed head came out and said same thing a week later.she wants 2%,i want 7%.
imho the inflation check should be the dallas paper employment section.when it gets above half an inch thick,the fed starts putting the breaks on in .5 % increments monthly.stopping at the 4th move for 4 months to see reaction.if economy is still inflating.adjust accordingly in bigger increments.at which point inflation is tagged at birth and death rates .
ive never been much for rules.
being me has its priviledges.

Dumbledore

Offline Pimander

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2016, 03:41:45 PM »
My reform of banking would be a lot more severe than that.  ;)

Offline astr0144

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Re: US Dow Jones Stock Market
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2016, 06:47:25 AM »
What happened in the US stock market from the Nov 8th Election day was quite unbelievable...

and I cannot really work it out.

The Dow Jones Stock Index Market initially declined just over 900 points ...I had thought that may had been just after the Eastern States polling closed... but it topped out and started Its decline at what  was about 1 am UK time...so in the Eastern USA this is 5 hrs behind, so I assume Maybe about 20.00 hrs EST USA time...

It fell from about 18400 to 17475...in about 4 hrs.. to about 5 am Uk time (Midnight EST USA time)

(That was one of the largest one day declines in History of the Stock market. and it was similar to what happened during  Brexit back in June..)

It then started to rerally and has since continued to rally for the rest of the week for 4 days..

Its now hit 18890 which was about a  massive 1413 points from the 17478 Low that was made.

The Dow has now it another level that I thought maybe hit back in July to August in my earlier posts...

On further analysis...I have 18888 or  19200 /19400 as my next possible targets in mind..

So we may see some sort of reversal Next week if that Price level holds ....there maybe some cycle date come in that I have missed.

but other wise I have these dates in mind..

With Nov 19th or 25th... or around Dec 7th or Dec 25th as dates that I think could see the next main pivot dates of importance.

As Much as it does seem positive...

At the moment ..I am still wary to the end of the year that a possible reversal could still occur..

But what has happened in the last week was quite amazing..

What has been so frustrating however was that the market did top back in August as I was expecting... but the earlier decline was relatively slow and the market ended up going sideways / range bound between Sept to early November...

It had declined prior to the Election from 18670 to 17880 ..about 790 points.. and on Nov 8h/9th went even lower for 4 hrs...to hit 17475...where it had overall fallen about 1200 points..

Then in one day it had rerallied all the way back up to that prior August 18670  top .. 1200 points in one day... that maybe the biggest one day move ever made in the Dow Jones...

So Since the August 15th 2016 top it had taken almost 3 months to decline and just one day to reverse all the way back up..

Quite unbelievable..

Also usually Markets bottom during the main trading hours.. but the low made on Nov 8th/9th was out of hours made on the 24 hr Futures market instead of the cash market that trades only between 9.30 am to 16.00 hrs EST (14.30 to 21.00s UK)

I cannot work out any reason how or why that has happened after many years studying market cycles...as most cycles work from past highs and lows made during normal trading hours..


One thing that I am VERY Surprised by so far..

is that the Dow Jones broke to new all time highs...

BUT the S&P 500 and Nasdaqs August Highs are still holding.

The S&P 500 is actually the major USA Stock Index as it is based upon 500 companies where as the Dow Jones is only based upon  30 Other Top US Companies..

But Often on large directional moves up or down, its the Nasdaq that usually moves the most or would be expected to make new highs or lows before the Dow or S&P 500.

So I want to see do their August highs hold or will they make new highs before the end of the year.






http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/COMP/charts?symb=COMP&countrycode=US&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F12%2F2016&freq=1&compidx=none&compind=none&comptemptext=Enter+Symbol%28s%29&comp=none&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&style=1013
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 08:49:41 AM by astr0144 »

 


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